NGX Daily Market Summary – Tuesday, August 26, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) ended the day up by 0.23% at 141,439.77, sustaining the strong Year-To-Date (YTD) return of 37.39%. Despite the positive close, market breadth undershot at 0.81x, with more decliners (36) than advancers (29). Trading activity was vibrant: volume increased slightly to 578.08M shares, while turnover surged 26.92% to ₦12.02B, signaling robust institutional participation. Top movers delivered eye-popping single-day moves, and several momentum and volume signals flashed across sectors, giving traders plenty to digest.

Significant Trends in Market Breadth

• Market Breadth: 0.81x (decliners outpaced advancers), which signals underlying weakness beneath the index's slight gain.
• Volume Up: 79 stocks had higher trading volume, with only 62 down, suggesting rotational interest beneath the surface.
• Turnover Surge: Value traded jumped nearly +27%, continuing a recent trend of institutional re-engagement.

Top Gainers & Losers

• Top Gainer: NCR (NIGERIA) PLC (NCR) jumped +10.00% to ₦11.55, with an extremely overbought RSI of 98.7 and positive MACD — clear momentum but ripe for retracement.
• Other Big Movers:
  • BERGER PAINTS PLC (BERGER) +9.06% | Moderate RSI, but price broke above both 15/50DMA (bullish), volume robust.
  • BETA GLASS (BETAGLAS) +8.16% | Another parabolic run, RSI near the upper limit.
  • CADBURY +8.04% | Healthy uptick; 15DMA crossover points to further possible upside.
  • SOVEREIGN TRUST INS. (SOVRENINS) +7.55% | On both Gainers & YTD outperformers lists.
• Top Loser: SFS REIT (SFSREIT) plunged -9.99% (high beta correction).
• Other Notables:
  • VETINDETF -10.00% | Signs of heavy ETF rotation and failing momentum.
  • LEGENDINT -10.00%
  • VETGRIF30 -9.43%
  • NSLTECH -9.26% | Also flashed in "Unusual Volume" table – possible forced selling or block exit.
  • CUTIX -8.97% | Bearish momentum confirmed by 15DMA breakdown and negative sentiment.

Key Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Implications: Elevated turnover, up 26.92%, alongside index resilience and negative breadth, hints at large players reshuffling portfolios — potentially buying select large-caps while distributing mid/small-caps.
• Advancers/Decliners: Although the ASI closed green, the higher number of decliners indicates potential near-term pressure unless leadership broadens out.
• Unusual Volumes:
  • AUSTINLAZ: +1294% vs 90D avg – microcap, speculative inflow, but liquidity risk is high.
  • VERITASKAP: +177% vs 90D avg | YTD gainer, now with momentum confirmation: strong candidate for trend continuation.
  • NSLTECH: +270% vs 90D avg but price -9.26% | High likelihood of a large seller; monitor for reversal or continued dump.
• Bullish Momentum:
  • BERGER, CADBURY, OANDO, FCMB, GTCO, FIDELITYBK, UBA, ACCESSCORP all closed above their 15DMA (bullish crossover), with several also on institutional Top Trades lists — a constructive sign for trend followers.
  • NCR & BETAGLAS have extremely high RSI (>98)—suggesting "blow-off” tops; trailing stops recommended.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • CUTIX, NSLTECH, VETGRIF30, LEGENDINT, JAPAULGOLD, ETI closed below 15DMA with prices heavily down, RSI not yet deeply oversold except for select names—bearish moves may persist.
  • ETI (EcoBank) is a top YTD decliner, crossed bearish, negative sentiment persists, risk for further downside.
• Notable Overlaps:
  • VERITASKAP: YTD Top Gainer + Unusual Volume + Positive RSI — textbook strong uptrend.
  • NSLTECH: In Losers, Unusual Volume, Bearish Momentum — likely to remain under downward pressure.
  • BETAGLAS: Present in both Daily and YTD Top Gainers, with an RSI in "extreme” territory — tactical risk of sharp pullback.
  • SOVRENINS: On Gainers and YTD Momentum tables.
  • CUTIX: Daily Loser, Bearish Momentum.

Contrarian Signals

• BERGER PAINTS: RSI is only moderate (45) despite a +9.06% surge and bullish 15DMA crossover — positive momentum may have more room to run than the chart suggests.
• LEGENDINT: RSI near neutral (48.9), but with sharp losses and a breakdown below 15DMA—watch for bounce, but continue with caution.
• CADBURY: Moderate RSI (39.3, down from 58.6!) even as price crossed above 15DMA, perhaps signaling near-term exhaustion despite upward break.
• GTCO — High price momentum, moderate RSI (stopped short of overbought), institutional flows strong but top Retail activity as well; might see mean reversion.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Screen Highlights)

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK captured 20.17% of institutional trade value (₦520M out of ₦2.58B tracked top-5). Combined volume & value concentration marks it as a high-conviction institutional play—momentum watch.
• GTCO, UBA, MTNN, ACCESSCORP: All showing up on both institutional and retail top-traded lists. These large financials are acting as market liquidity proxies; moves here set tone for wider sentiment.
• MTNN: Despite no price change, top value stock for both Institutional and Retail trades—potential buildup ahead of bigger move.

High Dividend + Momentum Alert

• UBA, FIDELITYBK, SOVRENINS: Present in both high dividend yield and bullish momentum tables. This combination is rare and supportive for core trend traders and defensive portfolio managers.
• GTCO: While not a high-yield standout, combines rising momentum with institutional inflow—yield chasers and growth traders both participating.

Trader Suggestions & Cautions

• Momentum Traders: Focus on stocks with bullish 15DMA/50DMA cross (e.g., GTCO, BERGER, UBA, ACCESSCORP) while maintaining trailing stops, especially for extreme RSI names (NCR, BETAGLAS).
• Reversal Watch: Stocks with high volume but deep price drops (NSLTECH, CUTIX) are possible short-term "dead cat bounces," but risk remains tilted lower unless sentiment quickly turns.
• ETF Traders: Heavy losses in VETINDETF, VETGRIF30, LOTUSHAL15 suggest systematic rebalancing — opportunities may exist for nimble mean-reversion trades if oversold conditions deepen.
• Defensive Investors: Yields plus momentum (UBA, FIDELITY, SOVRENINS) can buffer portfolio volatility, but rotation risk is present if market sentiment sours.

YTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers

Market Activity Comparison – Retail vs Institutional

• Trade Count: Retail made up a dominant 62.3% of trade count but only 37.9% of volume and 16.2% of value – suggesting active "churn” in smaller names, with institutions focusing on block trades in high-conviction picks.
• Volume & Value: Institutional trades accounted for 62.1% of volume and a commanding 83.8% of trade value, confirming big money drove today’s major moves — especially in banking giants (GTCO, UBA, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK).
• Top Institutional Stocks:
  • MTNN, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO
  • All are large liquid names, and are also on the Retail top-5 traded list, indicating market-wide focus and ample liquidity.
  • ZENITHBANK’s high institutional concentration signals further possible block flows, potentially signposting future price leadership.
• Top Retail Stocks:
  • ACCESSCORP, GTCO, UBA, MTNN, AIICO
  • Overlap with institutional top picks shows confluence; retail chase in laggards (AIICO) is also visible—watch for whiplash.

Hidden/Edge Insights

• ETF Stress: Seeing several ETFs among YTD losers and in today's top losers, market-wide risk-off flows and rebalancing may continue if bond/fixed income yields rise.
• Insurance Sector Outperformance: Multiple insurance names (VERITASKAP, SOVRENINS, WAPIC, REGALINS) are present in both YTD gainers and Unusual Volume tables — sector momentum seems sticky; tactical long bias justified.
• Excessive Overbought Readings: Both NCR and BETAGLAS at RSI >98 — statistically rare, often followed by short-term corrections, but may continue "melt-up” before mean reversion bites.
• Retail/Inst’l Trade Overlap: Banking sector names being top-traded by both groups increases short-term volatility and provides robust liquidity; watch pivot days for early trend changes.

Summary Table: Bullish & Bearish Stocks with Highest Technical Edge